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AFC PLAYOFF FORECAST

Analysis by Paul Kuharsky.


Opponent winning percentage is combined winning percentage of remaining opponents.


NEW ENGLAND
Record: 10-0, first in AFC East. Clinches division with a win Sunday against Philadelphia or a Buffalo loss at Jacksonville.
Stretch run: Philadelphia, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Miami, at New York Giants.
Opponent winning percentage: .417, third easiest.
Forecast: Games against the Steelers and at the Giants look to be the major remaining obstacles for a team bidding for the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. We think they pull it off.


INDIANAPOLIS
Record: 8-2, first in AFC South.
Stretch run: at Atlanta, Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Oakland, Houston, Tennessee.
Opponent winning percentage: .450, tied for sixth.
Forecast: The Colts still face two huge division games in two weeks against Jacksonville and in the regular season finale against the Titans. We've got them dropping both, losing a tiebreaker atop the division to the Jaguars and getting in as a Wild Card.


PITTSBURGH
Record: 7-3, first in AFC North.
Stretch run: Miami, Cincinnati, at New England, Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore.
Opponent winning percentage: .433, tied for fourth.
Forecast: The Steelers recover well from last week's loss to the Jets and lose only one more game, Dec. 9 at New England. A home win a week later over the Jaguars proves huge, ultimately giving the Steelers the second seed and a week off.


SAN DIEGO
Record: 5-5, first in AFC West.
Stretch run: Baltimore, at Kansas City, at Tennessee, Detroit, Denver, at Oakland.
Opponent winning percentage: .450, tied for sixth.
Forecast: The Chargers find their footing in four games outside their division, but drop a game at Kansas City and Denver gets revenge against them in the second to last week of the season to split the series. They finish out of the playoffs at 9-7.


JACKSONVILLE
Record: 7-3, second in AFC South.
Stretch run: Buffalo, at Indianapolis, Carolina, at Pittsburgh, Oakland, at Houston.
Opponent winning percentage: .516, 10th easiest.
Forecast: Their final six key on two huge road games, at the Colts and at the Steelers. We see them edging Indy to even the season series, but losing at Heinz Field. Still, with a 5-1 finish, they surprise many and beat the Colts for the division title on the fourth tiebreaker.


TENNESSEE
Record: 6-4, third in AFC South.
Stretch run: at Cincinnati, Houston, San Diego, at Kansas City, New York Jets, at Indianapolis.
Opponent winning percentage: .450, tied for sixth easiest.
Forecast: They rebound over the next two weeks to improve to 8-4, but then endure another two-game losing streak to teams battling it out in the AFC West. Wins over the Jets and at Indy get them to 10-6, but Cleveland gets the final Wild Card slot ahead of Tennessee based on a better conference record.


CLEVELAND
Record: 6-4, second in AFC North.
Stretch run: Houston, at Arizona, at New York Jets, Buffalo, at Cincinnati, San Francisco.
Opponent winning percentage: .367, easiest.
Forecast: Holes on defense won't matter as much against some bad teams because the Browns will continue to find ways to produce points on offense and special teams. Ultimately a 10-6 record with eight of the wins in the AFC nab the Browns the final AFC slot.


BUFFALO
Record: 5-5, second in AFC East.
Stretch run: at Jacksonville, at Washington, Miami, at Cleveland, New York Giants, at Philadelphia.
Opponent winning percentage: .500, ninth easiest.
Forecast: Throw out the Dolphins and this is a rough ending for a team that's done remarkably well to hold together considering its injuries. The Bills run out of steam with a 2-4 finish, finishing second in the AFC East at 7-9.


DENVER
Record: 5-5, tied for first in AFC West.
Stretch run: at Chicago, at Oakland, Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, Minnesota.
Opponent winning percentage: .400, second easiest.
Forecast: The Broncos endured a brutal first 10 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .590. Things are significantly easier going forward, and we see a 5-1 finish and an AFC West title coming.


HOUSTON
Record: 5-5, fourth in AFC South.
Stretch run: at Cleveland, at Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Denver, at Indianapolis, Jacksonville.
Opponent winning percentage: .617, 12th and most difficult.
Forecast: It's a tough finish for the Texans, who recently lost their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, for the season with a serious knee injury. They'll get picked apart by several top flight quarterbacks. At least they can take some solace that while 7-9 is only good for fourth place in the South it would have tied them for second in the East.


KANSAS CITY
Record: 4-6, third in AFC West.
Stretch run: Oakland, San Diego, at Denver, Tennessee, at Detroit, at New York Jets.
Opponent winning percentage: .433, tied for fourth easiest.
Forecast: The Chiefs are going to beat a couple good teams at Arrowhead and have a huge bearing on the fate of some of them. But their hole is too big to dig out of and an 8-8 will leave them in third in a so-so division.


BALTIMORE
Record: 4-6, third in AFC North.
Stretch run: at San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, Pittsburgh.
Opponent winning percentage: .600, 11th easiest.
Forecast: The wheels are coming off the Ravens, who are coming off what might have been the most disheartening loss in the league this year. They'll get knocked around the next three weeks and wind up as the AFC's bust team at 6-10.